Regarding the upcoming Copenhagen Conference, both sides agree on the importance of actively furthering the full, effective and sustained implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in accordance with the Bali Action Plan. The United States and China, consistent with their national circumstances, resolve to take significant mitigation actions and recognize the important role that their countries play in promoting a sustainable outcome that will strengthen the world’s ability to combat climate change. The two sides resolve to stand behind these commitments.
In this context both sides believe that, while striving for final legal agreement, an agreed outcome at Copenhagen should, based on the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, include emission reduction targets of developed countries and nationally appropriate mitigation actions of developing countries. The outcome should also substantially scale up financial assistance to developing countries, promote technology development, dissemination and transfer, pay particular attention to the needs of the poorest and most vulnerable to adapt to climate change, promote steps to preserve and enhance forests, and provide for full transparency with respect to the implementation of mitigation measures and provision of financial, technology, and capacity building support.
“One critical pathway for collaboration specifically identified in the United States and China’s recent joint commitments is carbon capture and sequestration technology, or CCS, which has the potential to mitigate emissions from coal-fired power plants.”との由。この背景には、当然ながら、米中両国が、単にGHG排出量の多い国（世界第一位、第二位。両国合わせると世界全体の41%）であるというだけでなく、両国とも、石炭への依存度が非常に高いエネルギー構造を持つという事実がある。
The world became significantly much more leveraged over the past five years. And it was leverage taken on without foresight due to misplaced compensation incentives. This all came crashing down in the financial crisis, and the actions of so many during this time now look so, so foolish.
Controversy remains about the precise connection between global imbalances and the global financial meltdown. Some commentators argue that external imbalances had little or nothing to do with the crisis, which instead was the result of financial regulatory failures and policy errors, mainly on the part of the U.S. Others put forward various mechanisms through which global imbalances are claimed to have played a prime role in causing the financial collapse.
The US Treasury Secretary said that in the years leading up to the crisis, super-abundant savings from fast-growing emerging nations such as China and oil exporters – at a time of low inflation and booming trade and capital flows – put downward pressure on yields and risk spreads everywhere. This, he said, laid the seeds of a global credit bubble that extended far beyond the US sub-prime mortgage market and has now burst with devastating consequences worldwide.一方、同じ記者が今年9月17日付の記事（“China scorns focus on imbalances” ）で報じているところでは、中国側は、この一件に対し、以下のような反論を試みている。
Zhou Wenzhong, China’s ambassador in Washington, said: “People should not focus on only one thing, that is balancing the economy.” The International Monetary Fund should concentrate on doing a better job of monitoring the build-up of financial risks.
Imbalances were “certainly not the root cause of the problem”, Mr Zhou said. “The root cause of the crisis is the lack of supervision and abuse of the openness of the market, very risky levels of leverage and too much speculation.”
China is likely to argue that it is already doing a substantial amount to rebalance its economy. Although imports and exports have both slumped this year, imports have fared less badly as a result of demand for commodities created by the government’s fiscal stimulus programme.
このグラフからも見て取れるように、2000年代半ば以降、中国（とドイツと日本。実際には産油国も）の経常黒字は明らかに急拡大している。その結果、膨らみに膨らんだ中国（とその他の国々）の貯金（saving）が、アメリカの市場に過剰な流動性を供給し続けたこと、また、その過剰流動性が、アメリカのinterest ratesを実態以上に低い水準にとどめ、資産バブルを発生させるのに、少なくとも一役買ったことは、明らかであろう。論点は、その影響がどの程度決定的だったのか、という点である。この点については、今の時点で結論めいたものがあるわけではない。（というか、僕のような国際マクロ素人からしてみれば、どっちがよりcriticalな要因だったかなんて、どこまで議論を尽くしてみても、結局、見方次第で、どちらにでも見えてしまうのではないかという気さえする。と言いながら、自分の不勉強の正当化を試みていることは否定しえないが…）。One shouldn't underplay the effect of rising commodity prices on the global economy, and those price increases were driven in part by the factors shaping imbalances. On the one hand, low interest rates drove investors seeking returns to invest in commodities, and on the other hand, rapid export-oriented growth in China contributed to rising global demand for resources, pushing up prices. Without the commodity price shock, the recession and financial crisis would likely have been less severe.また、2005年には、Bernankeもこんなことを言っている。前掲のMaurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff (October 2009) より。
... an undervalued Chinese currency reduced the return to investment in tradeables in America, and increased the return to investment in non-tradeable sectors, particularly housing.
In his famous Sandridge Lecture of March 10, 2005, Ben Bernanke argued that the causes of the U.S. foreign deficit, and therefore its cures, were primarily external to the U.S. ... Bernanke did note that “the risk of a disorderly adjustment in financial markets always exists, and the appropriately conservative approach for policymakers is to be on guard for any such developments.”
While Chinese over-saving was a contributing factor to the recent crisis, it was neither necessary nor sufficient. ... The problem is what we did with the cheap money.ちなみに、先にも引用したMaurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff (October 2009) ―これは、サンフランシスコ連銀のAsia Economic Policy Conferenceのために用意されたものであるが―は、結局のところ、以下のような、中庸めいた見識を示している。
In short, we had a dysfunctional financial system that failed at its most fundamental job -- allocating capital to where it benefits the economy the most. Encouraging productive investment by businesses and preventing the next bubble go hand in hand -- both require fixing the financial system. Blaming global imbalances -- a consequence bereft of either a subject (an actor) or a verb (an action) -- is only a way of avoiding our real problems.
We too believe that the global imbalances and the financial crisis are intimately connected, but we take a more nuanced stance on the nature of the connections. In our view, both of these phenomena have their origins primarily in economic policies followed in a number of countries in the 2000s (including the United States) and in distortions that influenced the transmission of these policies through financial markets. The United States’ ability to finance macroeconomic imbalances through easy foreign borrowing allowed it to postpone tough policy choices (something that was of course true in many other deficit countries as well). Not only was the U.S. able to borrow in dollars at nominal interest rates kept low by a loose monetary policy. Also, until around the autumn of 2008, exchange-rate and other asset-price movements kept U.S. net foreignliabilities growing at a rate far below the cumulative U.S. current account deficit. On the lending side, China’s ability to sterilize the immense reserve purchases it placed in U.S.
markets allowed it to maintain an undervalued currency and postpone rebalancing its own economy. Had seemingly easy postponement options not been available, the subsequent
crisis might well have been mitigated, if not contained.
Accraはちょっとした建設ラッシュ。主に外国人向けと思われる高級マンションが、「そこかしこに」というほどではないが、「ところどころで」建てられている。右の写真は建設中のマンションの様子。おとといのカナダ大使館パーティの席で、超いい加減そうなアメリカ人の兄ちゃんから聞いた話によると、こういった建設案件では、いわゆる「サブコン」の位置を中国系企業が占めることが多いらしく、彼らは、昼夜分かたずに仕事して、バンバン建物を造っていくらしい。
みたところでは、当地の高級マンションの賃貸料は、日本と同じかそれ以上。$2,000/月もざらだとか。そんなに広い部屋は要りませんと言っても、セキュリティの問題なんかで、結局、外国人の皆さんは、それなりのレベルの部屋を借りざるを得ないらしい。となると、Accraのレントが値崩れすることは当分なさそうで、そう考えると、いまAccraでマンションを建てるというのは、多少（？）のリスクさえとれれば、かなり効率のいい投資なのかもしれない。素人ながら、直観的には、まだ「バブル」というほどの建設ラッシュではないと思う。左の写真は、そんな高級マンションの一つの広告看板。
これだけ読んでいると、「あぁ、やっぱり良貨は悪貨に駆逐されちゃうのね。。」と、思いそうになるのだが、事態はそんなに単純でもないようで…。
授業後、例の相部屋のべニン人のおじさんと、この件について話をしてみたところ、彼が言うのにも、やはり、中国のaidは迅速かつ効果的らしく、USAIDと違って被援助国が本当に望んでいるものを提供してくれるんだと言っておられた。地元に雇用を産み出さない（＝労働者を本国から連れてくる）点については批判していたが、総じて言えば、中国から援助を受ける方が「より便利」なんだと。
